Work from home expats could hit tax take

The shift to home working brought about by the pandemic could cost the UK economy up to £32bn a year in lost personal income tax as well-paid workers may choose to become expats

A paper published by the University of Leeds states that there could be an estimated revenue loss of between £6.5bn and as much as £32.5bn as highly-paid workers who live abroad but work for UK employers will pay their income tax in their country of residence, rather than to HMRC.

The report assumes that higher and additional rate taxpayers are internationally mobile. The scenarios put forward split this into three numbers of how many people would be internationally mobile with the potential personal income tax revenue loss estimated at £19bn, £9.6bn or £3.8bn per annum, that is, 10%, 5% and 2% of total personal income tax revenue.

As 31% of these taxpayers can work remotely, under the scenarios, the lost social security contributions would amount to £13bn, £6.7bn and £2.7bn per year using the same calculations.

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