From economic growth to inflation, fiscal to monetary policy, forecasting the UK economy has suddenly become even more uncertain than normal since the vote to leave the EU on 23 June. While the political situation has stabilised following the swift appointment of Theresa May’s administration on 13 July, almost two months earlier than would have been the case had the Conservative leadership election lasted full term, the political and economic response to Brexit remains highly uncertain.

Take the Bank of England, for example. At its first policy meeting after the Brexit vote the Bank left interest rates on hold, disappointing market expectations for looser policy.