Economic trends: productivity levels shows signs of improvement

Although the UK’s productivity is showing signs of improvement, over-optimism can lead to errors in forecasts, warns Martin Beck, senior economist at Oxford Economics

Productivity has been one of the black spots of the UK economy for the last decade. As of Q3 2017, output per hour worked was barely 1% higher than the level at the end of 2007. Internationally, while the UK saw the joint fastest rise in output per hour in the G7 from 1995 to 2007, since 2008 it has experienced the second weakest expansion.

Could we be on the cusp of a rebound? Output per hour rose by 0.9% in Q3, the strongest gain since Q2 2011 and the last quarter may have seen a strong performance continue. The three months to November saw hours worked drop by 0.4% while GDP rose by 0.5%.

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