For the last 40 years, UK house prices have gone through successive booms and busts, acting to support and then undermine consumer spending growth. But the market has now moved into a sustained period of subdued growth, something already noticeable in the data. Using an average of the Halifax and Nationwide measures, prices rose by 2.6% in the year to Q2 2017, down from a recent peak of 10% in mid-2014 and the weakest performance since the last quarter of 2012. Over the next three years, we forecast prices to rise at an annual average rate of only 1%.