The dire economic predictions made by many economists and commentators following last summer’s EU referendum have happily yet to materialise. But one development which was correctly forewarned by the consensus was that the pound would see a sharp fall in value in the event of a Leave vote. Indeed, within a few months of the referendum, £1 would buy barely $1.20 and €1.10 compared to almost $1.50 and €1.30 on 23 June. Anyone who has holidayed abroad recently will have felt the hit to their holiday spending.

But having reached a post-referendum low last autumn, it is noticeable that sterling did not plunge any further and has in fact staged a modest recovery since. In several respects, this is surprising. Prime minister Theresa May’s EU speech in January indicated that the government was erring towards a hardish Brexit, the election of Donald Trump as US President in November sent the dollar up and while the European Central Bank has continued to create new money as part of its programme of quantitative easing, its language has been a little less dovish of late.