As the UK gets set to trigger Article 50, it is difficult to predict with any certainty how future trade with the EU will look for UK businesses. However, statements made by the prime minister, Theresa May, and reactions from the other 27 EU member states, indicate that some change seems inevitable as to how goods are traded with the rest of the EU.

In her speech in January 2017, the prime minister made it clear that the UK would not seek continuing membership of the EU Customs Union and Single Market, but would try to negotiate a ‘bespoke’ settlement for each. To understand the implications of this, we must first understand the significance of the EU internal Customs Union.

The EU Customs Union is a single trading area where goods circulate freely between member states with no customs controls. Thus, most goods can be transported from Birmingham to Berlin as easily as from Birmingham to Bradford. The EU also serves other functions. Membership of the Customs Union creates a common customs tariff for goods imported from outside the EU, so that an importer in Germany will pay the same amount of import duty for most goods as a UK company importing the same product from the same country.