The UK’s decision to leave the EU is projected to cost the Scottish economy up to £11.2bn per year and Scottish public finances up to £3.7bn, according to the first in a series of analyses the Scottish government plans to publish to look at the potential impact on Scotland of the UK’s Brexit vote
Drawing on research by a range of external organisations, the Scottish government’s assessment suggests that by 2030, Scottish GDP is projected to be between £1.7bn and £11.2bn per year lower than it would have been if Brexit does not occur. Tax revenue is projected to be between £1.7bn and £3.7bn lower.
First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said: ‘This analysis – based on a wide range of sources – demonstrates that leaving the EU, under any potential alternative arrangement, will have a profound and long-lasting impact on the public finances and the wider economic and societal wellbeing of both Scotland and the UK as a whole.
‘The only way to protect Scotland’s economy – and the clear benefits which come from being part of the world’s biggest single market – is to work to ensure we protect our relationship with the EU.’
Sturgeon made her comments ahead of the publication of the latest government expenditure and revenue Scotland (GERS) report, due out later today. This is expected to show a black hole of around £15bn in government spending in Scotland, as the sharp fall in oil revenues has cut tax receipts, increasing Scotland deficit.
Sturgeon also announced she is to appoint a Scottish minister for Brexit, who will put Scotland’s case during negotiations for a UK withdrawal from the EU, although the details of who will fill this role have not yet been revealed.
