The Budget on 28 October will be the first since Andy Burnham became prime minister bringing in new chancellor John Healey. With borrowing costs high, fiscal headroom squeezed and spending commitments mounting, the question is not whether the Treasury needs money, but where it can find it.

Labour has pledged not to raise income tax, employee national insurance or VAT rates, which together account for almost 60% of receipts. That leaves smaller tax rises, narrower reforms, spending restraint and more fiscal drag.