On a related note, if the positive reactions of financial markets following the surprise election of Donald Trump to the US presidency are anything to go by, pre-election foreboding about the economic consequences of ‘The Donald’ is also looking a little suspect.

The Treasury’s pre-referendum analysis of the consequences of a Leave vote was a prime example of misplaced gloom. In the Treasury’s view, a combination of soaring uncertainty, rising risk premiums on household and corporate borrowing costs, and consumers cutting spending in the expectation that Brexit would result in the UK economy being permanently poorer, would see the economy shrink by anywhere between 0.1% and 1% in the third quarter of the year.

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