Martin Beck, senior economist at Oxford Economics, considers the economic impact of a potential change of government, even under the scenario of a Labour-led coalition
Given current political ructions within the Conservative party and the ever-present political strife arising from Brexit, there is a non-negligible chance that Theresa May’s government will fall at some point over the coming year and be replaced by an administration led by Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn. Were the new government to remain true to Labour’s 2017 general election manifesto, its policies of sizeable increases in taxation, public spending and borrowing, along with the nationalisation of key industries, would represent a major shift from the policies of previous UK governments over the past 40 years.
Granted, a general election would require a significant turnaround in voting intentions to deliver an outright victory for Labour. The party won 257 seats in 2017, 69 short of a working majority. And there is little evidence in the latest opinion polls that Labour is making much headway. But there is a more realistic chance of Labour forming a minority administration or governing as the leading partner in a coalition.