The UK economy is in a state of limbo. As the government seeks to chart the route to Brexit, survey data indicates that heightened uncertainty about the political and economic outlook has caused the pace of economic growth to slow sharply.

While an imminent recession appears unlikely, a downturn next year cannot be ruled out, and will largely depend on Brexit negotiations. Economic models illustrate the extent to which growth next year could vary depending on the Brexit path the government decides to lead the country down.