Economic trends: juggling global growth and long-term issues

The jobs-rich growth pattern is masking underlying risks for higher inflation and longer term issues, warns Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit

It is what I call an Eastenders’ moment: when the TV soap opera used to show almost everyone from the cast having a wonderful time in the Queen Vic pub, you knew the writers were setting us up for something awful to happen. It was just a matter of time before calamity struck. I have a similar feeling as I watch the data and commentary come in for the global economy in 2018.

The worldwide PMI surveys compiled by IHS Markit in some 42 countries are currently indicating the fastest pace of global growth since September 2014. Recent data have been signalling the fastest rate of expansion in the emerging markets for five years and the developed world has also seen growth at its best since 2014.

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