The latest RICS survey of the UK residential market shows that 74% of respondents expected a rush on buy-to-let purchases ahead of the new tax coming into effect on 6 April, while only 17% expect to see an increase in sales over the next three months.

From April, anyone purchasing an additional property to their main residence, including buy-to-let or second homes, will face a three percentage point surcharge on stamp duty rates.

The changes mean someone purchasing a £275,000 buy-to-let home would see their stamp duty bill rise from £3,750 to £12,000 – nearly three times as much.

However, while house price inflation expectations peaked following the autumn statement, with prices driven by speculation regarding an increase in investor demand, RICS says this trend is set to soften from March as investor interest dampens. Only 21% of respondents expect prices to increase over the coming months.

Simon Rubinsohn, RICS chief economist, said: ‘Over the past three months, we have witnessed a surge in buy-to-let activity. Since the Chancellor made his autumn statement announcement last November, investors have rushed to purchase homes before the stamp duty surcharge comes into effect. It is inevitable that over the coming months, April’s changes will take a little of the heat out of the investor market.

‘While there remain significant doubts as to whether the government’s plans to encourage a more robust development and construction pipeline will be sufficient to address the housing crisis, long-term price indications for the housing market remain strong, with respondents still expecting them to rise by a further 25% over the next five years.’

Download the latest RICS UK Residential Market Survey here

Essential reading

For detailed technical analysis of changes to property tax, read our Property Tax review on how changes to property tax will affect any upcoming property investments from stamp duty levy to interest rate relief and hikes in ATED rates