The economist Paul Samuelson famously quipped that stock markets had predicted nine out of the past five recessions. Equally, both economists and financial markets have predicted dozens of interest rate increases by the Bank of England since the financial crisis that have – until recently – failed to materialise.

The Bank’s recent rise in rates marks the first tightening in policy for a decade and from unprecedented low levels, both facts making its economic impact particularly uncertain.

Economics is far from an exact science. So it should come as little surprise that while there are a number of reasons to think that the impact of the recent rise might be modest, there are some who believe that rate rises may have more pernicious effects than has been the case in the past.