Research from the ICAEW indicates business confidence is on the up and that the UK will avoid the threatened triple-dip recession.

Figures from latest ICAEW/Grant Thornton UK Business Confidence Monitor (BCM) show companies are at their most confident since Q2 2011 and predicts that growth will resume this quarter. The Index currently stands at +12.8, up from +4.2 in Q4 2012, suggesting GDP will grow by 0.4% in Q1 2013.

Companies reported an increase in turnover of 3.3% in the past 12 months, and expect a rise of 4.6% in the year ahead. Similarly profits grew by 2.5% in 2012 and are expected to grow by 3.9% in 2013. Although below the pre-crisis averages, expectations are more optimistic than they have been in recent quarters.

The figures for jobs are also positive, with firms reporting a 1% increase in staff in the last year and plans to increase headcount by 1.5% over the next 12 months.

However, the survey has identified concerns about finding the right people once the recovery starts, with one in 10 firms saying the availability of management skills is a greater challenge than a year ago.

There is also evidence that businesses remain cautious, highlighted by continued low capital investment and salary growth. However, all regions are positive, with the South East and Wales taking the lead, as are all sectors, with IT & communications and construction the most optimistic.

Michael Izza, chief executive of ICAEW, said: 'There was a risk that, combined with the traditional January blues, the bad weather and some high profile retail collapses, talk of a triple-dip recession could become self-fulfilling. These results show that we are set to avoid a third period of technical recession, but no one should be complacent. There is only one way out of our economic malaise, and that's to increase our economic output.'