The current state of the UK economy, characterised by subdued growth forecasts and rising employment costs, particularly from the April 2025 employer National Insurance (NI) hike and minimum wage increases, are likely to contribute to increased redundancy and downsizing programmes over the next one to two years.

While increased redundancies appear probable, especially in the short term, the labour market is described as undergoing a ‘slowdown, not a collapse’, with job losses remaining relatively subdued so far (eg, HR1 redundancy notifications (advance notification redundancies) were low in July 2025).

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