The Bank of England has left interest rates frozen at 5.25% for the sixth month in a row and expects inflation to fall below 2% by June
This month the vote was more stable with eight members of the monetary policy committee voting to hold rates, with only one calling for a 0.25% cut. Last month three broke ranks with two voting for a rise.
Despite signs that inflation is heading closer to the Bank’s 2% target, there are no signs yet of any loosening of monetary policy.
The Bank cited concerns about labour market activity, global risk, supply chain disruption and high levels of pay rises in the private sector as issues central to the decision.
‘The Committee has judged since last autumn that monetary policy needs to be restrictive for an extended period of time until the risk of inflation becoming embedded above the 2% target dissipates,’ the Bank said.
‘It will continue to monitor closely indications of persistent inflationary pressures and resilience in the economy as a whole, including a range of measures of the underlying tightness of labour market conditions, wage growth and services price inflation. On that basis, the committee will keep under review for how long bank rate should be maintained at its current level.’
On a more positive note, it estimated that the fiscal measures announced in the Budget earlier this month would increase GDP by a nominal 0.25%.
The Bank also had to revise its CPI inflation target, now saying that it is projected to fall to slightly below the 2% target by June 2024, putting pressure on the Bank to take a less hawkish view on interest rates. However, it expects inflation to go back up in the second half of the year as a result of higher energy prices.
Kaley Crossthwaite, partner at BDO, said: ‘Despite inflation set to hit the Bank of England’s 2% target by May, the decision to hold rates shows that it’s not yet mission accomplished when it comes to rising prices.
‘UK businesses are crying out for some relief. A fifth of mid-sized businesses believe the cost of borrowing will be one of their top challenges over the next six months, but there should soon be some welcome light at the end of the tunnel. If indicators continue in the right direction an initial rate cut in the summer looks inevitable, with further cuts expected later in the year.’
After being criticised for its slow reaction to rising inflation when the Ukraine war broke out, the Bank is now doggedly sticking to a much tougher stance on interest rates, however external pressures could see the Bank cave when the US starts reducing rates.
Nicholas Hyett, investment manager at Wealth Club, said: ‘The market was already anticipating that rate cuts wouldn’t start until the second half of the year, and there’s little in these numbers to change that perception.
‘So what will ultimately trigger a change of course? We suspect that central banks around the world are waiting on the US Federal Reserve to set the pace. Once the Fed starts to cut, currency movements will likely force others to follow suit. As in so many other areas of public life, where the US leads, the UK will follow.’